The last time I know of that Erik posted to LJ was at 12:30pm on November 17, where he told Hafidha about the
cupcakes and calzone waiting for her at the security desk. Haf's
I have to go to the hospital now post was at 3:03pm that same day. The very next morning, at 8:57am, Hafs
offered up two tickets to an Amanda Palmer concert that she wasn't going to attend. (Whereupon Chaz wheedles Hafs into going to the concert with him.)
Combine that with the whole "perfect month for a funeral" bit, and the obvious conclusion is that Erik splattered himself all over something early on the afternoon of November 17.
(
http://www.shadowunit.org/smf/index.php?topic=504.0 for the contemporary discussions.)
Of course, our PTB are students of the Edward Bernero School of Misdirection, Card Palming and Other Ways of Fucking With Your Fandom's Heads
1. Which is the main reason I'm not fully convinced - yet - that Erik is dead.
1 Assuming they're not fully tenured professors there, that is.